Foursprung: Predictions about development in car technology

TimesOnline collected some voices about the future of technological development of cars:

Developments that once would only have been a science fiction dream are fast becoming fact when it comes to car technology. Telematics will enable drivers to keep in touch with the outside world; to slip past the hold-ups on our groaning roads network; to slash car crime and accident risks. Ultimately, technology may well reduce the driver to the role of passenger in his own vehicle – a prospect that elicits as much horror as relief amongst Britain’s car owners.

Long before that, however, the role of passenger will itself have become far less passive. Foresight Vehicle, a research arm of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, predicts that within five years cars will boast mobile broadband internet connections. Factor in the choice of DVDs, TV, games or streamed video, and things look bleak for traditional journey time-killer “I Spy”.

The situation looks bleaker still for car thieves, and for errant youngsters that, says Microsoft, may one day find their parents’ cars refuse to drive beyond a preset zone. Within five years, predicts Foresight Vehicle, some cars may subject their drivers to biometric tests before starting up. Other drivers will carry a miniature computer, keyed into their vehicle and holding personalised preferences covering everything from engine tuning to seat settings. Moreover, if a thief does manage to drive away, the owner will be able to activate the car’s immobiliser remotely – a technology already available for commercial vehicles.

Communications and satellite navigation are also developing fast. A new EU regulation will require all new cars to summon the emergency services automatically if they’re involved in an accident, for which they’ll need mobile phones and satnav systems. What’s more, European recycling directives will force manufacturers to keep track of their vehicles from showroom to scrapyard, further embedding the need for satellite location and communications technology.

Perhaps the most interesting technologies, though, are those that impinge on the driver’s role. We already have ‘adaptive’ cruise control systems that can accelerate or brake, and drowsiness and lane-monitoring systems that alert inattentive drivers. Furthermore, the Australian research lab NICTA has developed a system that spots road signs, checks whether the driver has looked at them, and points out any they’ve missed. “Eventually, on a motorway the driver will leave control to the system,” says Dr Nick Barter, Foresight Vehicle’s programme director. “A lot of the technology is available now.”

The next step is for these systems to override poor driver decisions. “There will come a point when support systems are safer than the driver. This stuff is creeping in: at what point will drivers accept that, if the light goes red, the car’s going to stop?” says Nigel Wall, director of transport consultants Shadow-Creek. “Intelligent cruise control could warn the driver that they’re speeding, and it’s not a major technological leap forward for the car to monitor what’s going on and report back [to the authorities] – which is horrible, but what price safety?”

Clearly, this is not a straightforward road to follow. “There’s legislation which wouldn’t allow drivers to give up control,” points out Nick Hull, Coventry University’s automotive design course tutor. Dr Erel Avineri, senior lecturer at the University of the West of England’s Centre for Transport and Society, worries that “introducing such systems may lead drivers to rely on them too much. Devices designed to improve safety can cause people to pay less attention, so there’s a trade-off.”

However, the Government has an interest in pushing convergence as a tool for influencing driver behaviour. “If you look at navigation systems, some take real-time congestion data and find a way around the problem,” says Wall. “That’s fine when five or 10 percent of cars have the system. But if 50 percent have it and they all take the same alternative route, you get chaos. So above about 15 percent, you need to think about a centrally-managed system whereby the drivers log their destinations and the system balances the flow by routing each car.” Drivers could be pushed towards a preferred route, suggests Wall, by varying road-pricing charges.

Foursprung
Source: TimesOnline

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